Gender and Perceived Electability in Morocco

• In Event: Women’s Political, Economic, and Social Lives in Muslim-Majority Countries

Abstract

Do perceptions of whether other people will vote for female candidates influence voters' own willingness to elect women? Recent findings suggest that perceived gender norms often diverge from actual levels of support for gender equality around the world, and that voters in advanced electoral democracies may strategically discriminate against individuals they view as likely to face bias in electoral competition. We investigate whether a divergence between perceived and actual support for female candidates is associated with a lower willingness to vote for women in a more patriarchal, authoritarian context. On a nationally representative face-to-face survey of Moroccans, we embed a conjoint experiment that asks respondents to identify not only candidates that they personally prefer, but also which candidates they perceive male voters as preferring and which they perceive female voters as preferring. We hypothesize that respondents prefer male to female candidates; that men perceive others as preferring male to female candidates; and that women perceive men as preferring male candidates and women as preferring female candidates. We also hypothesize that respondents overall will express preferences closer to perceived male voter preferences, but that female respondents will express preferences closer to perceived female voter preferences. Our results have important implications for the extent to which (potentially exaggerated) perceptions of opposition to women as candidates inhibit their chances of electoral success.

Authors

• Carolyn Barnett, University of Arizona

• Alexandra Domike Blackman, Cornell University

• Marwa Shalaby, University of Wisconsin-Madison