The Effect of Sites of Injustice: Evidence from the 2022 Taipei Mayoral Election

• In Event: One Election, Multiple Approaches: The Case of Taiwan

Abstract

In the 2022 Taipei mayoral election, did Chiang Wanan really gain political benefits because of his status as a descendant of the Chiang family? According to cognitive dissonance theory, people living near sites of injustice are more likely to accept authoritarian symbols and values. This study uses spatial analysis to estimate the distance between more than 400 Village in Taipei City and the historical sites of injustice, as well as the relationship between Chiang Wanan's vote rate in each Village. We found that: 1. The 228 sites and the White Terror sites have opposite effects on previous KMT candidates. The closer to the White Terror Site, the higher the vote rate for the KMT candidate; the closer to the 228 Site, the lower the vote rate for the KMT candidate. 2. If we estimate based on the change rate of Chiang Wanan’s votes, the effect of the 228 Site and the White Terror Site are the same. The closer to the Injustice Site, the higher the vote rate for Chiang Wanan. 3. Different from the European experience, in Taipei, the publicly displayed sites of injustice have no mitigating effect. In the past, research on the relationship between white terror and voting behavior in Taiwan was quite insufficient, and there were also some methodological flaws. In order to obtain a more reliable estimation effect, this study used spatial regression, geographically weighted regression and matching methods, and obtained almost consistent findings. The results of this study contribute to voting behavior and spatial analysis. It also provides some reference for the transitional justice debate in Taiwan.

Author

• ZHI-YING LI, Hu Fu Center for East Asia Democratic Studies