My Blue Heaven: Explaining Growth in Democratic Support in the American Suburbs

• In Event: US Parties at the State and Local Level

Abstract

In the current American electoral landscape, the suburbs are the battleground where elections are won and lost. But in decades past, this was not the case as Republicans counted the suburbs as a reliable bedrock of support. The two parties’ electoral calculation has changed as the Democratic Party has enjoyed significantly more support in the suburbs in recent years, but why do Democrats fare better in the suburbs than they used to? This paper attempts to answer that question by testing competing hypotheses for growing Democratic support in the suburbs. The partisan realignment in the suburbs correspond with structural changes associated with more left-party voting such as growing racial and ethnic diversity in the suburbs, the ongoing realignment of college educated voters along with economic shifts such as the increased role of education and health care industries in the local economies. We test these hypotheses by examining county-level data on suburban voting behavior and demographic trends from 1980-2020. We supplement this analysis by conducting a conjoint experiment presenting respondents with competing congressional candidates with differing demographic characteristics along with varied policy positions. We analyze how suburban voters weigh a candidate’s social identity alongside their policy positions in determining their voting choice. Our two-level analysis of suburban voting behavior adds to the understanding of one of the major elements of partisan realignment in the United States.

Authors

• Joel B Kersting, Washington & Jefferson College

• Christopher G. Faricy, The Maxwell School at Syracuse University