Assessing the Causes, Conduct, and Implications of the U.S.-China “Chip War”

• In Event: Great Powers and Tech Industries in a Globalized World

Abstract

Since October 2022, the United States and China have been locked in an intense competition
known colloquially as the “chip war.” We argue that this conflict is indeed best understood as a
case of limited economic war insofar as Washington’s aim is to degrade China’s power through
brute force. We address three questions about the war. First, what caused it? Second, how is it
being waged? Third, what are its likely consequences? After conceptualizing the conflict as a
case of limited preventive economic war, we analyze how each side is prosecuting the war to-
date using a combination of close reading of primary documents, interviews with policymakers,
and analysis of proprietary semiconductor industry data. We conclude by discussing the war’s
implications for China’s technological rise, its impact on the United States’ relations with key
allies and partners, and the future of U.S.-China coercive diplomacy in other domains.

Authors

• M. Taylor Fravel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• John David Minnich, Massachussetts Institute of Technology