The Origins and Escalatory Dynamics of the US-China Chip War

• In Event: Great Powers and Tech Industries in a Globalized World

Abstract

The conflict between the US and China in the semiconductor industry has become a focal point in their relations. Drawing from security studies, I argue that the chip war broke out and rapidly escalated due to the securitization of China’s shifting industrial policy for semiconductors in the context of global production. Previously stressing specialization in the global supply chain through the support of entrepreneurship, in the mid-2010s the Chinese state, driven by exposed vulnerabilities, began to put much emphasis on indigenizing the supply chain. Crucially, Washington, along with the American chip industry, deemed China’s indigenization effort a threat to US security that required unusual responses, particularly export controls, thereby securitizing the issue. Yet US controls led China to double down on indigenization, creating a downward spiral akin to the security dilemma. This explanation accounts for the chip war’s timing and rapid escalation and shows that it is far from inevitable, as structural accounts tend to suggest.

Author

• Yan Xu, Brown University