Donald Trump and the American Public: Implications for 2024

• In Event: Evaluations of Politicians and Voting Behavior

Abstract

Donald Trump’s presidency, legacy, and campaign to regain the White House in 2024 present a challenge to political science as well as American democracy more broadly. Despite his countless lies—the most toxic the stolen election claim—loss of civil suits for defamation and fraud, and felony indictments in three federal courts, Trump continues to enjoy the steady support of a substantial minority of Americans voters and a large majority of ordinary Republicans and is running ahead of Joe Biden in early 2024 horserace polls. What does this tell us about the nature, origins, and determinants of Americans’ political beliefs and opinions? To what extent does it confirm, challenge, or expand our scientific understanding of mass political behavior? Which of the diverse explanations, singly or in combination, best account for his political attraction and durability? My paper will address these questions through a review of the theoretical and empirical research literature on Trump’s support and analysis of the vast trove of polling data on reactions to and evaluations of Trump, his rhetoric, and his actions, with particular attention to the effects, if any, of the multiple judicial proceedings against him as the election year progresses.

Author

• Gary C. Jacobson, University of California, San Diego