When Do Gray-Zone Conflicts Trigger the Rally ’Round the Flag Effect?

• In Event: Popular Support and War

Abstract

Under what conditions do gray-zone conflicts, including cyberattacks and economic coercion, trigger the rally 'round the flag effect in target states? Although prior literature demonstrates that wars, territorial disputes, and terrorist attacks contribute to the public support of leaders, few studies examine whether and when the emerging gray-zone conflicts generate the rallying effect. To fill this theoretical gap, we hypothesize that whether citizens are more likely to support the leader depends on
1. whether the target government reveals or conceals the information about the gray-zone challenges;
2. whether the target government retaliates the sender government or seeks a peaceful resolution;
3. whether critical infrastructures are attacked.

We plan to conduct two survey experiments with 1,500 participants recruited in each wave at the National Taiwan University Websurvey platform. The result of the first survey experiment (fielded in November 2023) found strong support for the second hypothesis. Specifically, the list experiment embedded in the survey showed that respondents tend to support the incumbent president when exposed to the treatment of Taiwan's retaliation against China's cyber intrusions, trade sanctions, and submarine cable disruptions. The finding extends the spiral model's theoretical applicability in the sense that escalation can also occur in operations below the conventional threshold of armed conflicts. While the vignette experiments do not validate the first and third hypotheses, we will implement the second-wave survey experiment based on different types of gray-zone attacks after the inauguration of Taiwan's new president in May 2024.

Authors

• Yi-Hao Su, National Taiwan University

• Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen, Academia Sinica