Eyes in the Sky: Does Satellite Observation Reduce Conflict?

• In Event: Competition and Conflict in Space

Abstract

Does the possession of military reconnaissance satellites reduce conflict? Recent research finds that they do, with major implications for future conflict trends. Yet we argue that such claims are flawed. Theoretically, satellites do not provide sufficient information to preclude conflict, and may even facilitate greater aggression. Empirically, findings of a dyadic peace for satellite-equipped states are statistically spurious. The advent of satellites appears to reduce conflict because the technology’s development and proliferation coincides with a decades-long decline in the frequency of serious interstate conflict. Placebo tests reveal that any technology that emerged and spread over this period – no matter how remote from security applications – also appears to reduce serious interstate conflict when included in the same statistical models. Our findings have wide-ranging implications for other international relations research that suggests a given variable reduces conflict over the same time period. We consider potential alternative effects of satellites and suggest that, even if they are broadly incapable of preventing wars, they may still have other effects on conflict patterns, such as duration or termination.

Authors

• Avishai Melamed, Cornell University

• Christopher Way, Cornell University