Back to Personalistic Rule: When is the Starting Point of the Xi Jinping Era?

• In Event: Chinese Politics under Xi Jinping's Rule

Abstract

While Xi Jinping is widely considered to be the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic of China, the mechanisms of how he amassed power remain ambiguous and are a subject of ongoing scholarly debate. This paper examines the nuanced dynamics of central-local interactions, as revealed in provincial-level official media, from the 19th to 20th National Congresses, to explore the timeline of his power concentration process. Like a barometer of political shifts, Chinese media have substantial signaling functions, and media coverage patterns can be used to identify the power dynamics of the political elite, particularly the paramount leader. Employing the method of difference-in-difference and utilizing the technique of cosine similarity for text analysis, I quantify the extent to which provincial authorities follow Xi's political footsteps. Contrary to the prevalent belief that Xi Jinping's personalization of power predominantly transpired during his first term, as evidenced by the absence of appointing a successor-in-training at the 19th Politburo Standing Committee, my analysis indicates that the actual power concentration occurred much later than widely presumed. More specifically, the data suggest that during the 19th National Congress, Xi Jinping's support in Fujian and Zhejiang, where he worked for many years, was significantly higher than in other provinces. This pattern shifted after the 19th National Congress, particularly from 2018 to 2021, during which his influence extensively permeated nationwide. The result is robust and consistent with the factional analysis. These findings also corroborate the theory that personalization is challenging in a highly institutionalized and rule-governed authoritarian regime, even though we have witnessed Xi's power concentration process. This insight adds to our comprehension of the complexities surrounding authoritarian resilience.

Author

• Yuge Wang, University of Georgia