Elections on the Edge

• In Event: Elections and Politics in Africa

Abstract

Electoral violence remains an enduring threat to peace and democracy across Sub-Saharan Africa, yet its complex roots are not adequately explained by existing scholarship. While prior studies have analyzed various societal, institutional, and international determinants as isolated factors, this research proposal argues that a configurational approach is necessary to understand causation. Specifically, certain alignments of ethnopolitical marginalization, relative population quota, and state capacity can escalate tensions by shaping incentives and opportunities. However, these configurations can also mitigate electoral violence. The objective of this study is to construct and validate a configurational theory, asserting that various determinants interact to produce, as well as constrain, electoral violence by influencing actor incentives and opportunities.

In terms of methodology, I advocate for employing a mixed-methods research design that integrates panel regression analysis, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), and Case Studies incorporating process tracing and social network analysis data. These methods, when used iteratively, can test configurations and make stronger causal inferences about the likelihood of violence in the context of elections in Sub–Saharan Africa. This research aims to provide policymakers with a roadmap of the complex causal recipes that escalate into violence and present windows to promote peaceful electoral contestation. By revealing the distinct alignments of factors driving the likelihood of electoral violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, findings can inform comprehensive and context-specific interventions to manage the volatility of African elections.

Author

• Joseph Siaw Akowuah, Washington State University