The Power of the Leader: Party Approval and Institutional Trust

• In Event: Following the Leaders? The Impact of Dynamic Individuals

Abstract

Donald Trump’s hold over the Republican base, as well as the extent of the conflation between the party brand and himself and its consequences for the health of the US party system, have been of great interest to scholars since Trump entered the political scene in 2015. In this study, we utilize an original survey experiment of registered Republican voters to analyze how knowledge of Trump’s approval of Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as the Speaker of the US House influences Republican voters’ assessment of the ouster, their evaluation of their own party, and trust in the House as an institution. We argue that if Trump’s hold over the base remains strong and the association between him and the party brand remains high, then his approval should increase Republican voters’ approval of the Speaker’s ouster, their party, and trust in the US House. We find consistent empirical support for the aforementioned expectations. This study has important implications for understanding the leader-constituent relationship and the health of the American party system.

Authors

• Regina Wagner, University of Alabama

• Michael Binder, University of North Florida

• Enrijeta Shino, University of Alabama

• Adrienne Lerner, University of North Florida