Diplomatic Drones? How Unmanned Technology Imports Affects Alliance Building

• In Event: Drones and Autonomous Warfare

Abstract

Do drone imports fuel closer diplomatic ties or alliances with the states that provide them? The scholarly literature on alliances suggests that the transfer of technology between two countries can be part of a strategic decision to deepen diplomatic engagement between an importer and exporter, in some cases even fostering a degree of economic and political dependence on the part of the importer. To date, despite concerns that transfers of unmanned aerial technology might deepen authoritarianism (Horowitz, Kreps and Fuhrmann 2016; Boyle 2020), there has been no examination of whether this dynamic is in play with drone exports. Using data on commercial and military drone sales from both China and Turkey, this paper asks whether drones sales are being used to foster a “soft alliance” between the exporter and the recipients that leads to sales of additional military and commercial technology, including surveillance technology, as well as closer military ties? To do so, it uses descriptive data on the scale and density of drone transfers between two recent global drone exporters, China and Turkey, and uses process tracing to examine how the transfer of the technology affects the diplomatic and military positions of recipient countries.

Authors

• Michael J. Boyle, Rutgers Camden

• Wojtek M. Wolfe, Rutgers University