Navigating the Cosmos: The Global Incentives behind Space Warfare

• In Event: Competition and Conflict in Space

Abstract

Space could become the battleground of the future. While governments propose new regulations and fund private companies to navigate the unknown with technology, their ultimate goal is to help build confidence in modern space infrastructure as they become heavily reliant on space-based assets such as satellites to conduct military operations. This chapter explores the intricate correlation between financial incentives in the defense sector and the shaping of global politics in the realm of space warfare. The inquiry delves into how major space nations such as the United States, China, Russia, the EU, and Japan strategically allocate their resources: what criteria are used to choose industrial partners? What is the decision-making process behind choosing industrial partners? Subsequently, how do non-state actors affect the landscape of space warfare?

Building on a comprehensive analysis of government documents, procurement data, and the historical context of space warfare initiatives, preliminary results reveal gaps in proper procurement and government R&D funding audits. Additionally, there are potential risks of commercializing dual-use space technology, such as satellite imagery and remote sensing, which are crucial for global security. The criteria used by states to choose industrial partners emphasize factors such as technological capabilities, past performance, cost-effectiveness and give less attention to geopolitical alliances. The decision-making process involves extensive evaluations, which are prone to corruption. Finally, non-state actors play a significant role in shaping this landscape. Findings point toward the benefits of collaborating with non-state partners in the context of space warfare and the simultaneous need for further recommendations regarding their potential implications for national security and economic growth. Private companies and research institutions have been actively involved in space exploration and technology development, often bringing innovation and competition to the forefront. Their involvement introduces both opportunities and challenges, as it may lead to a more diverse and dynamic space warfare arena but also raises concerns regarding security risks and the potential weaponization of space.

Author

• Anne-Marie Paszkowska, International Association for Political Science Students