Do Opinion Status and Political Climate Influence Black Lives Matter Engagement?

• In Event: Media-Based Drivers and Consequences of Protests

Abstract

This study investigates the predictors of people’s online and in-person engagements regarding Black Lives Matter (BLM), a major sociopolitical movement. As successful sociopolitical movements vitally hinge on participation of societal members, why and how people decided to engage in BLM via social media or in person is an important question. Four interconnected theoretical areas provided the foundation for this investigation. 1) The relationship between perceived political climate in society and opinion expression – how people sense the political climate may determine whether and how they voice their opinion on controversial issues like BLM. 2) Geographical milieu of political climate – where people reside (in terms of partisan leaning) might influence views toward and opinion expression about BLM. 3) Spiral of silence theory – the theory predicts that the perceived majority will be more likely to be willing to express their opinion publicly and the minority will be less likely to do so. 4) Contact with Black persons – people with more contact with Blacks would be more likely to be concerned with the issue, and thus, to engage in BLM via online or offline mode.

A nationwide, representative (n = 1,130) survey was conducted in 2021 to gauge respondents’ attitudes toward and personal estimates of societal support for BLM. The factors generated from the aforementioned theoretical foundations such as participants’ perception of the opinion climate regarding BLM in society, amount of contact with Blacks in their lives, and their geographic locations that may permeate distinct political climate – in terms of Democratic- or Republican-leaning states – are also explored for their potential influence on BLM-related engagements in social media and in person.

The study results show that both online and in-person engagements with BLM are positively correlated, suggesting the long-suspected connection between people’s social media-based and in-person engagements of BLM. Respondents’ own support of BLM and previous contact with Blacks are significantly conducive to their engaging in BLM both online and offline. The partisan inclination of geographic locations where participants reside and BLM-related opinion climate turn out indecisive for predicting engagements. Furthermore, people’s opinion status (whether or not being in the majority) was not critical for their social media or in-person participation in BLM; in effect, those who did not support BLM and sensed their status of minority opinion were more likely to publicly opine on social media. Therefore, the spiral of silence thesis is rejected by the evidence gathered in this case. The findings of this study not only contribute theoretically but also inform the pattern of public opinion and political participation in critical social movements in wake of the social media era.

Authors

• Denis Wu, Boston University

• Chawannuch Chaikulngamdee, Boston University