Domestic Threats, Family Ties, and Elite Responses to Mass Protests

• In Event: Stability and Change in Autocracy

Abstract

Drawing upon a dataset encompassing 13,400 instances of mass protests across 149 countries from 1992 to 2020, this study provides a nuanced analysis of state repression strategies. Utilizing a dyadic approach, we scrutinize both the attributes of mass protest movements and the sociopolitical characteristics of ruling elites to elucidate the complexities of repressive behavior. The findings reveal that mass protests characterized by violence and anti-regime sentiment significantly prompt leaders to employ heightened forms of repression. Simultaneously, our study uncovers a “habituation effect,” where state leaders exhibit a diminished propensity to employ repressive measures against subsequent protests within a calendar year. Intriguingly, the family ties of political elites modulate this behavior, with leaders connected to non-executive political actors being the least inclined to escalate repressive tactics in response to enduring protests, relative to both dynastic leaders and those without such familial networks. This article elucidates potential mechanisms underpinning these observations and delineates avenues for future scholarly endeavors.

Authors

• Zezhong Wang, Peking University

• Yanjun Liu, Peking University