Voter Mobilization and the Spillover Effects of Voter ID Laws

• In Event: The Consequences of Electoral Laws and Administration

Abstract

It has been suggested that voters who are Black, Hispanic, and members of the Democratic Party were mobilized to vote in response to the passage of new voting restrictions, and that this mobilization effect has muted the overall effect of voting restrictions. In this paper, I use individual voter data from the state of North Carolina to test whether the implementation of the state's voter ID law in 2023 had a mobilizing effect on voters. Looking at municipal elections held in 2023, I find that voters who live in election precincts where more voters lacked a driver's license were more likely to vote after the passage of the voter ID law, suggesting a mobilization effect from the voter ID law. This mobilization effect is equal in size for voters who did and did not possess a valid voter ID, indicating a spillover effect to voters who were not directly impacted by the law. This suggests that counter-mobilization played a significant role in muting the impact of voter ID laws on turnout. I also examine the role of spatial proximity for spillover effects, suggesting that contact with neighbors is a potential mechanism through which counter-mobilization takes place.

Author

• Noah Braun, University of Pittsburgh