Comparative Perceptions of U.S. and Chinese Military Presences in Kenya

• In Event: The Diverse Foundations of American Global Power

Abstract

Projecting military power abroad allows the United States to deter adversaries, reassure allies, and respond to contingencies. Overseas military bases are essential to projecting power but are often subject to contestation by domestic political factions that can lead host countries to restrict access or even evict U.S. forces. This project surveys the public in Kenya concerning views of the U.S. military presence and perceptions of Chinese influence. We ask respondents about their interactions with U.S. military personnel and their perceptions of the economic, environmental, and political costs and benefits of hosting a U.S. presence. Additionally, given active Chinese developments in surrounding countries and China’s promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, we ask about Chinese influence and economic activities in the region. We find that the competition for host-state civilian consent is evolving even in countries firmly within the United States’ sphere of military influence. Our findings invite further research into how the macro competition between the United States and China influences the views of micro-political actors in democracies and how that competition may enable and inhibit future military access by major powers.

Authors

• Michael A. Allen, Boise State University

• Brian Blankenship, University of Miami

• Michael E. Flynn, Kansas State University

• Renanah M. Joyce, Georgetown University

• Carla Martinez Machain, University at Buffalo