Examining the Role of Negative Campaigning Media Coverage on Electoral Trust

• In Event: Media Effects on Public Opinion

Abstract

Negative campaigning is an age-old campaign strategy employed by politicians worldwide. Existing research has predominantly examined its demobilizing effects on electorates, its impact on support for political participation, and the consequences for both the sender and recipient of the attacks. Nevertheless, there is a gap in our understanding regarding its effects on electoral trust, particularly in new democracies where the threat to electoral trust is perceived to be more pronounced than in other regions of the world. This paper addresses this gap by examining how media coverage of negative campaigning influences citizens’ perceptions of elections. I argue that Election Management Body (EMB) autonomy mitigates the potentially negative impact of negative campaigning coverage on electoral trust. The findings suggest that in countries with highly autonomous EMBs and low media coverage of negative campaign messages, citizens are more likely to hold positive views of the electoral process compared to countries with highly autonomous EMBs and high media coverage of negative campaign messages. These empirical findings draw from data collected across 18 countries over three rounds of the Afrobarometer, a nationally representative survey gauging public trust; expert assessments of media coverage of negative campaign messages, as measured by the Negative Campaigning Comparative Expert Survey (NEGex); and expert assessments of EMB autonomy derived from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). This study brings attention to the intricate interplay between media coverage of negative campaigning and the institutional autonomy of EMBs, emphasizing their combined influence on shaping the trust of electorates in the electoral process. A comprehensive understanding of these dynamics is crucial for maintaining government legitimacy and preserving the integrity of democratic processes.

Author

• Kelechi Amakoh, Michigan State University