Regional Military Expenditures: A Cointegration Analysis

• In Event: Emerging Scholars Lightning Round: Graduate Student Research: Understanding Military, Economic, and Status Security in Contemporary and Historical Contexts

Abstract

Research on military expenditures recognizes that states respond to the military expenditures of neighbors and to exogenous events. In this research note, I examine the dynamics of the military expenditures of Poland, Ukraine, and Russia from 1995-2021. I find that military expenditures in each country, like other government expenditures, do not have an equilibrium level of spending. Changes in military expenditures have a long-term impact on spending. However, military expenditures are in equilibrium with the military expenditures in neighboring states. In the case of Poland, Ukraine, and Russia, there are not dyadic equilibria between pairs of countries. The evidence suggests that there is a multilateral equilibrium that is consistent with the concept of a regional security web. I discuss how this research note adds to our understanding of Eastern European security and the contribution of univariate and cointegration analysis in the study of military expenditures.

Author

• Myla Burton