Districting, Safe Seats, and Political Polarization

• In Event: Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties

Abstract

Over the past few decades, the United States has experienced a growing number of secure congressional seats for both parties, coinciding with a deepening political polarization. Many observers have linked these occurrences and partially attributed them to the rise of gerrymandering. As a result, there is a rising demand for redistricting reform to mitigate overly partisan districts, thereby slowing the polarization trend. This study examines these assertions using a computer redistricting algorithm to investigate the connection between gerrymandering and the prevalence of safe seats. Analyzing data from New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas, the evidence reveals that the increase in safe seats is not significantly influenced by gerrymandering or the entire redistricting process. Instead, it is primarily a consequence of the evolving political geography. In addition to voters' self-residential sorting, the data indicate that this shift in the political landscape also results from people undergoing an ideological transformation over the past few decades.

Author

• Zhiyang Zhu, Cornell University