The Autocracy Bandwagon: Legacy Politicians and Authoritarian Consolidation

• In Event: Elections, Parties, and Representation in Non-Western Democracies

Abstract

Transitions to authoritarian rule pose a threat to the persistence of political elites. This threat is especially pronounced among elites who are more likely to challenge the regime due to their ideology and ties to mobilized sectors. We examine how regime change influences the trajectories of legacy politicians and argue that authoritarian institutions can allow them to retain political power by credibly relinquishing their oppositional aspirations. Using individual-level data from Brazil's last federal and state congressional elections before the 1964 right-wing coup, descriptive analysis and a regression discontinuity design reveal that prominent left-wing politicians, who are natural challengers of the autocratic regime, only join the regime when they can side with the regime's party. This effect is most pronounced among the subset of left-wing politicians with greater political experience, for whom persistence is likely a more salient concern. These findings provide insights into the microfoundations of authoritarian transitions and consolidation.

Authors

• Guadalupe Tuñón, Princeton University

• Lucas M. Novaes, Insper