Micro-Level Determinants of Inter-Militant Competition: Taliban-ISKP War

• In Event: Coordination, Competition, and Learning in Multi-Actor Conflict

Abstract

What factors cause militant groups to fight one another rather than shared government opponents? While much literature examines the determinants of competition between insurgent groups, few analyses examine the micro-level causes and consequences of this competition. Using novel military records from Afghanistan, which record 5000+ incidents of clashes between Taliban and ISKP factions from 2015-2020, I reassess classical theories of on-side violence between insurgents. Competition is greatest in areas where illicit economic opportunities, like artisanal mining, logging, and poppy cultivation, raise the rents insurgents can extract. Violence also increases disproportionately in areas where NATO troops were based, particularly during Doha negotiation rounds.

Author

• Christopher William Blair, Princeton University