For Economy: Calvin Coolidge's Victory in the 1924 Presidential Election

• In Event: Presidential Elections

Abstract

President Calvin Coolidge won a landslide victory in the three-way presidential race of 1924, against a divided Democratic Party and Robert La Follette’s Progressive insurgency. It is widely assumed that Coolidge’s win can be explained by the steady economic growth, or “prosperity,” of the 1920s. It clearly cannot be explained by the charisma or campaign activity of “Silent Cal,” who refused to publicly appeal for votes. This election is therefore an ideal test case for the role of “fundamentals” — particularly, national economic conditions — in explaining presidential election outcomes. But whereas political scientists who advocate for this approach often are at pains to counter conventional wisdom about the decisive effects of candidates and campaign strategy, this is a rare instance in which the presumption runs in the opposite direction. That is to say, the conventional wisdom about the 1924 election is that the campaign did not matter — that Coolidge was the passive beneficiary of a strong economy (and other structural advantages). After all, how could a candidate who stayed home and said nothing deserve any of the credit for winning? This paper - in fact, a draft chapter for a book on Coolidge's election - provides a unique empirical analysis of vote choice in 1924, based on county-level economic and demographic data. My analysis confirms that economic growth played a major role in Coolidge’s election, but also that he benefited — at least in some regions — from La Follette's Progressive candidacy and support from within the resurgent Ku Klux Klan. I discuss these results in relation to contemporary and historical interpretations of Coolidge’s landslide victory, and political science research on the importance of “priming” electoral fundamentals. I conclude that Coolidge played a key role, albeit behind the scenes, in obtaining this outcome, by working effectively with other Republicans to claim credit for a strong economy but also by refusing (unlike his opponents) to denounce the Ku Klux Klan.

Author

• Christopher John Devine, University of Dayton