State Legislative Congruence and Public Opinion

• In Event: Representation and Direct Democracy in the US

Abstract

Scholars have long focused on the responsiveness and congruence of public opinion and public policy. Yet to be considered in this literature however is the role of geography and the differential representation of geographic-based interests. Politicians frequently speak about how important rural populations are to their state (and Republicans often how important they are to the voting base). Nevertheless, rural populations frequently feel as though the government does not care about them. This paper seeks to understand how congruent and responsive state legislation is to rural public opinion. Using time series data from 2006-2020 from the Cooperative Election Study and legislative output from the Correlates of State Public Policy, I use a lagged timed model to understand how strongly rural public opinion on abortion and gun policy are intertwined with state legislation. Results from this paper will shed further light on how rural voters opinions influence state legislation.

Author

• Jenna Salzman, University of Texas at Austin