Outside Money in Mayoral Elections: Motivation, Spending Dynamics, and Impact

• In Event: Electoral Spending Strategies and Political Influence

Abstract

Citizens United has not only greatly affected the financing of campaigns for federal and state offices, but has also shaken up local races around the country. However, research thus far has primarily focused on the effects of independent expenditures (IEs) on congressional and presidential races without paying sufficient attention to local elections. This study seeks to partially fill this gap by examining the effects of outside money on mayoral election outcomes in larger U.S. cities. Specifically, this study examines the motivation, types of spenders, spending dynamics, the degree of out-of-city involvement, and the impact of independent expenditures since 2010 on mayoral elections in ten large U.S. cities. The cities included in the analysis are: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Portland (OR), Philadelphia, San Francisco, Jacksonville (FL), Seattle, Denver, and Boston.

I find that IE funding in mayoral races is often driven by a few wealthy individuals, in some instances increasingly so. Second, IE spenders are rarely organized around party-centered groups, but are usually either structured as ad hoc, candidate-centered organizations or as interest group-centered entities. The latter two forms occur at equal rates in my sample. Third, with regard to spending dynamics, three models, (1) a relatively balanced, adversarial relationship between grassroots/labor on the one hand and elite/business interests on the other, (2) spending by a pragmatic growth coalition, and (3) lopsided, elite/business-centered spending, are all common occurrences, whereas one-sided, grassroots-centered spending is rare. Fourth, elections where pragmatic, access-oriented IE organizations that focus on future legislation dominate are twice as common as instances where ideological, election outcome-focused IE groups drive IE spending. Fifth, the number of elections where IEs make up over 20% of all campaign spending has increased in the last few years, demonstrating the escalating role of outside money in mayoral elections. Sixth, in roughly one-fourth of all races with independent expenditures, significant funds came from individuals who did not reside in the city in which the election took place. Lastly, in primaries, the candidate who received the most IE support ended up winning the election a little over 60% of the time. The win rate increases to 75% in general elections. However, establishing cause-and-effect relationships between IE spending and election outcomes remains challenging.

Author

• Henrik M. Schatzinger, Ripon College