Measurement of Xi Jinping Policy Preferences and Political Influence

• In Event: Chinese Politics under Xi Jinping's Rule

Abstract

The article examines the limitations of traditional dictator models and proposes a nuanced approach based on balancing preferences to achieve multiple equilibria in authoritarian regimes,
emphasizing that policy outcomes are influenced by leaders’ varying preferences, rather than solely rational decision-making. This study contributes to the literature in 3 ways. First, it provides
a novel theory that connects leaders’ personal preferences to outcomes. Second, This paper introduces Novel Probing, a new method for predicting and measuring the policy-making of elite politics. This framework quantifies the authenticity and influence of an autocrat’s ideas by utilizing semantic similarity and topic modeling methods to assess the deviation of their speeches from official propaganda, constructing indices for dictator’s preferences and dominance across different topics. Finally, the paper contributes to the empirical discussion about Chinese elite politics. By applying this framework to Xi Jinping, using a corpus of his speeches and state-issued communications, this study measures Xi’s policy priorities and level of dominance over China. Xi’s Preference Index highlights his focus on China’s rejuvenation and monthly political patterns in elite politics, while the Dominance Index provides empirical evidence of his control over policymaking and consolidation of power after the 19th Party Congress.

Author

• Jonathan Elkobi, Yale University