Global Polarization: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the UN

• In Event: Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

This study seeks to quantify the disparities in voting patterns among member states in both the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Security Council. Its objectives are twofold: first, to analyze discrepancies in voting behavior between any two nations, and second, to identify potential clusters or blocs of nations based on their voting records. The focus of the study centers on issues pertaining to international security. The primary impetus behind this project is to gain insights into how Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has influenced the levels of global polarization among nation states. Furthermore, it aims to discern how this polarization manifests in the responses of states to pressing matters of global peace and security. The study spans three distinct periods: (1) pre-annexation of Crimea (2012-2014); (2) post-annexation of Crimea until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2015-2021); and (3) post-full-scale invasion of Ukraine (since February 2022). Methodologically, the paper employs social network analysis, hierarchical clustering, and k-medoids clustering. The resulting conclusions reveal a discernible rift between the USA and its political-military allies primarily in Western Europe, juxtaposed against the majority of developing nations, including China and Russia. A noteworthy observation is the diminishing gap between China and Russia, particularly following the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Author

• Abbas Mammadov, Washington State University