Attitudes towards Return Migration in Developing Economies: The Case of Colombia

• In Event: Latin American Politics and Populism in Diaspora

Abstract

Data estimates suggest that up to half of all migrants return to the country of origin within 5 years of the initial migration. Return migration is known to be a boon for the local economy and a catalyst for political reform. However, these beneficial effects are conditional on successful reintegration, and successful reintegration is dependent on the preferences of non-migrants. What causes negative attitudes towards return migration, given its significant potential economic benefits? I argue that non-migrants are concerned about both the economic and political competition of returnees. Non-migrants prefer to welcome back migrants who can bring back home financial capital and employment, but will oppose competitors on the job market when labor markets are tight and unemployment is high. Furthermore, non-migrants with conservative(progressive) views of the political status quo will oppose(favor) returnees who can act as political norm entrepreneurs. I test my hypotheses with a conjoint survey experiment conducted in Colombia and find broad support for my expectations. I also illustrate the consequences of my theory for real world political consequences by reexamining the results of the 2016 referendum. Where labor markets were tight, the marginal effect of potential returning refugees on the referendum changes from positive to negative.

Author

• Melle Scholten, University of Virginia